Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8410a130bf761fa51ca58817bf42bba0671db72f75b1a2e8d69dd548a49f9165
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 44c | 629.87$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.05 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 352.26$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 4c | 347.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 306$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 23c | 251.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 5c | 235.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 60c | 226.1$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes | 46c | 211.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 10c | 147.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 17c | 128.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 24c | 93.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 47c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 61.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 53.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 52.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 36c | 51.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 43c | 51.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…24e2backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 38.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 59c | 38.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 44c | 36.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 30.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 70c | 28.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 25.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…8bb7backed No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 56c | 19.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 13?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.