Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0bb4b878fc1b0177085648bb71c3ff7f8e50db5c391bc12432d2d58e819303a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 68c | 841.77$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.5 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 590.47$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.04 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 39c | 533.55$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.61 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 36c | 525.47$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.67 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 35c | 365.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 27c | 333.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 34c | 309.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.22 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked No | 61c | 269.97$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 46c | 269.34$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 40c | 265.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 58c | 261.08$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.71 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 68c | 253.32$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 235.41$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 60c | 170.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 36c | 150.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 13c | 149.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 39c | 138$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 21c | 137.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 70c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…d340backed No | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 128.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 116$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 35c | 112.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 73c | 112.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 36c | 110.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 105.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 15c | 100.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…9bbbbacked Yes | 20c | 98.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 26c | 93.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 90.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1a…b51fbacked Yes | 30c | 79.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 31c | 78.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 21c | 76.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 64c | 76.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 32c | 63.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 23c | 59.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 57.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 56.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 65c | 55.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 54.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 65c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 66c | 50.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 48.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 47.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 44.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 35c | 41.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 45c | 40.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8502…89b6backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 36c | 35.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…105fbacked Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 45c | 34.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…4f7abacked Yes | 55c | 27.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 56c | 23.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 23.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…724cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…4a59backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…6c34backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 13?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.