Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cb1dfd14bab595656bce1ec4783a15f2653bafa1e955c5bb393e76a7c405ec1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 41c | 1,338$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.21 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 70c | 1,089$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.61 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked No | 28c | 1,041$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.55 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed No | 30c | 764.97$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.65 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 590.48$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.59 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 11c | 461.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.5 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 65c | 453.06$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.16 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 69c | 398.41$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.42 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 40c | 373.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.39 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 16c | 299.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 29c | 299.15$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.12 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 17c | 272.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.98 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 73c | 259.45$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 60c | 246.88$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 5c | 235.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 6c | 204.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.75 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 76c | 187.75$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 186.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 8c | 173.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.01 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 25c | 163.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…c922backed No | 33c | 141.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 65c | 139$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 138.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…3063backed Yes | 41c | 138.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 17c | 132.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 16c | 124.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.38 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 14c | 121.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 117.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…270cbacked Yes | 32c | 106.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 101.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc402…51b3backed Yes | 75c | 100.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 99.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 35c | 96.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 63c | 90.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 67c | 89.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…c997backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 13cpaid | +700%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 22c | 79.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 27c | 71.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…4551backed No | 59c | 70.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 68.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 51c | 65.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 58c | 63.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 25c | 61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1a…b51fbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 58.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 61c | 52.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 33c | 51.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47d3…a8f7backed No | 73c | 51.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 59c | 48.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…08c5backed Yes | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 37c | 36.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…c5dbbacked Yes | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 71c | 32.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 31.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 65c | 31.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 74c | 27.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…4c85backed Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…efdfbacked Yes | 61c | 23.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…b85cbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1d51backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…3df3backed Yes | 67c | 19.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 19.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…b48cbacked Yes | 71c | 18.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b5…b552backed Yes | 66c | 16.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 13?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.