Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8435cb10a8030b60d479da6032c1c34ea21e06d5728ddae213897759d4076880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 10c | 1,291$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.41 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 13c | 554.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.68 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 9c | 415.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.95 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 25c | 315.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.9 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 73c | 222.83$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 183.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 162.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 24c | 160$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 145.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 143.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 123.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 118.87$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 110.72$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…11b5backed Yes | 24c | 109.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 96.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 24c | 95.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 12c | 95.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 25c | 91.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 59c | 91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 33c | 89.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 84.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 79.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 15c | 71.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 24c | 67.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 42c | 63.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 27c | 58.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 37c | 55.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 55.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 40c | 50.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 27c | 46.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 52c | 45.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 42.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 51c | 39.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…877fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 26.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…8327backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.