Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb72a9054c11ccce67144a7f995272af11c5cae854628f6be0a335d906c1c0ad7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 47c | 921.52$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.63 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 25c | 543.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.08 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 44c | 475.13$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.74 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 458.02$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.51 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 392.78$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 53c | 381.19$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.15 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 41c | 356.37$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.11 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 70c | 343.99$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 19c | 332.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.86 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 239.59$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 174.04$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 54c | 172.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 163.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 61c | 155.68$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 74c | 146.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 48c | 146$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 144.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 30c | 124.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 36c | 121.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 50c | 118.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 54c | 109.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 103.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 101.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 43c | 95.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 94.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 42c | 85.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 81.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 41c | 80.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed No | 34c | 78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 67c | 75.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 22c | 74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 41c | 69.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 45c | 69.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…4796backed Yes | 78c | 66.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 57c | 65.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 58.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…8493backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 70c | 52.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 56c | 52.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 43c | 52.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 41c | 51.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 32c | 50.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 47c | 49.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 49.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 49.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 45.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 43.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 41.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 41.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 75c | 41.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 39.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 53c | 38.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed No | 60c | 38.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 29c | 36.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 80c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 30.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 55c | 29.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 55c | 29.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e6…beb0backed No | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 56c | 28.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 41c | 27.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 77c | 26.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 73c | 26.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 57c | 25.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 77c | 25.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 39c | 25.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 20.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 20.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 20.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 18.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cc…f2fdbacked No | 77c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.