Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45b1db7ac4eb62f06bb533f776b164d64dd28282f5402e57315e5daa4de96fa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 45c | 1,553$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 384.35$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 359.74$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 320.58$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 301.58$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.03 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 37c | 282$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 59c | 206$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…0f28backed No | 57c | 174.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…11b5backed Yes | 17c | 170.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 167.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed Yes | 36c | 157$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 79c | 152.37$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 149.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 148.29$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 146$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 61c | 117.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 111.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 104$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 69c | 102.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 26c | 96.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 92.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 89.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 88.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 48c | 83.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 74.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 68.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 63.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 57.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 44c | 56.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 56.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 55.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 44.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 42.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 42.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 40.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 40.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 56c | 37.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 51c | 33.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…edc9backed Yes | 41c | 30.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 29.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 29.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 54c | 28.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 27.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 25.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 55c | 25.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 24.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 42c | 23.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 22.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 21.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked No | 52c | 20.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 20.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.