Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8435e85cc56c8405f72669e4eea56c2306d3793b519a797763b6a043ceb42da2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 452.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 171.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 156.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 115.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 115.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 27c | 115.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 75c | 94.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 12c | 92.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 92.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 88.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 74.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 71.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 71c | 70.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 24c | 62.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 26c | 52.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 80c | 48.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 78c | 47.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 39.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 33.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 31.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 27.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 77c | 22.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 77c | 20.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 78c | 16.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 72c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.