Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95d758b4540a05a2715f09a00e5f36749cecceb61f769c6c7867adb1f0a55092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 39c | 1,292$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.71 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 429.4$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.47 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 49c | 367.06$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 300.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 296$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 273.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 63c | 270.47$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.24 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 259.48$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 17c | 246.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.59 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 20c | 227.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.9 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 208.15$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 179.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 168$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 166$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 48c | 162.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 45c | 160$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Yes | 80c | 149.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 68cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 148.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 144.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 64c | 144.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 140.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 16c | 128.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 116.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 112.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 28c | 107.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 106.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 18c | 104.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 19c | 103.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 96.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 94.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 34c | 93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 89.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 19c | 86.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 27c | 82.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 73c | 82.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 26c | 78.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 77.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 72.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 20c | 69.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 60c | 62.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 65c | 59.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 52.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 59c | 50.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…3abfbacked No | 59c | 50.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…8e49backed No | 59c | 50.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…131ebacked No | 59c | 50.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…04cebacked No | 60c | 50.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 49.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked No | 76c | 46.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 45.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 34c | 36.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 32.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 31.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 40c | 29.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 40c | 27.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 27.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 22.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 69c | 21.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 80c | 19.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 76c | 18.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 70c | 15.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.