Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72fd17e4449a42e00ba4e5cd60b08291ecf972f4f64e163f9bbb974c62ebbe20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 42c | 1,563$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.24 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…f012backed Yes | 47c | 1,073$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 51c | 624.25$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.17 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 577.27$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 43c | 461.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.76 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 312.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 297.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 296$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 30c | 260.64$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 67c | 255.46$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 255.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 67c | 211.83$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.58 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 53c | 206.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 200.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.71 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 43c | 186.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 178.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 178.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 57c | 162.28$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 159.88$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 150.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 147.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 140.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 57c | 138.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 104.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 53c | 102.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 35c | 87.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 26c | 75.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 74c | 74.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 72.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 72.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 71.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 68.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 67.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 60c | 65.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…a8ffbacked Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…d837backed Yes | 49c | 61.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 43c | 60.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 50c | 60.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 50c | 59.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 54.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 50.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 46c | 50.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 40c | 49.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 46c | 47.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 46.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 44.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 43c | 42.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 42.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 42.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed Yes | 54c | 42.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 54c | 40.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 53c | 36.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 44c | 35.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 57c | 34.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 59c | 33.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 44c | 32.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 48c | 30.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 28.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 50c | 28.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954d…7dfabacked Yes | 59c | 28.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 48c | 27.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 41c | 26.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 50c | 26.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 23.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 22.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.