MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84455148647e537bf7945064040bc18d970f4273937c0f3d8447ce597e73a88e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 9,168$4,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,738.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 5,375$2,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,001.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 4,772$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,865.66 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 4,712$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 29c | 3,448$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 3,074$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 1,830$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 1,612$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.53 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 55c | 1,393$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.49 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 53c | 915$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 61c | 640.02$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.68 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 55c | 602.83$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.49 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 43c | 543$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.88 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 6c | 447.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 50c | 433.72$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.71 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 358.16$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.27 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 356.56$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 7c | 258$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 7c | 234.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 56c | 168$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…1ebebacked Under | 42c | 149.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 47c | 90.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 61c | 76.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 57c | 75.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed Over | 42c | 47.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…fd02backed Under | 40c | 38.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0203…e1e7backed Over | 54c | 33.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…771cbacked Over | 49c | 32.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Over | 61c | 29.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Over | 80c | 28.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 55c | 27.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Under | 48c | 26.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 56c | 26.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 60c | 21.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 77c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas RangersChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.