MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8458d5f23b34996561dd7b8701f85565b28c7b8ed0248593b6cd4ab4fc9a213c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 1,476$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 70c | 643.14$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.81 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 32c | 573.95$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.66 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 68c | 476$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.22 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 78c | 400.15$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.54 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 395.01$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 37c | 374.87$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 16c | 363$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 317.69$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…53a2backed Under | 60c | 270$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 15c | 220.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 33c | 205$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 15c | 199$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 67c | 198.43$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 29c | 198.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…6068backed Under | 69c | 185.7$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Under | 79c | 171.75$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 11c | 169.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 32c | 141.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 31c | 128.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 111.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 32c | 92.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…26a0backed Under | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Under | 34c | 56.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8237…ae4bbacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Over | 29c | 45.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 63c | 25.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.