MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1b9a948beb749dfb69c78e034be9eea1d23092d5de5ba6113117a269ae8e559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 35c | 7,057$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,479.07 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…bf27backed Under | 62c | 5,493$3,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,103.73 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 39c | 3,143$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.92 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 63c | 2,879$1,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.47 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…4c5fbacked Over | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 2,352$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 2,133$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 39c | 1,839$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.7 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 1,372$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 1,046$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.02 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 65c | 984$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.47 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Over | 42c | 808.1$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.4 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 799.99$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 60c | 692$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.22 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 27c | 475.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 41c | 470.9$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 30c | 467.04$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 73c | 460.27$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 45c | 374.87$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.69 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 341$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 77c | 300$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 41c | 216$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 27c | 215.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 46c | 183.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 42c | 165.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 35c | 147.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 63c | 104.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 64c | 103.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 69c | 86.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…6068backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 60c | 77.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 60c | 71.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Over | 34c | 69.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 61c | 59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 39c | 56.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 61c | 55.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 53.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 63c | 52.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 63c | 52.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Over | 42c | 48.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Under | 66c | 41.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 65c | 40.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 59c | 35.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 59c | 25.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 67c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 68c | 21.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Over | 47c | 21.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af8…6bfebacked Under | 59c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Under | 66c | 16.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Under | 80c | 13.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.