MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93f463acd28d7fd6029a74761726a2b08a990ee34aad939e1c5dc4769fefa580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 36c | 2,969$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.1 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 38c | 1,751$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.41 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed No | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 66c | 1,188$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.26 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 34c | 1,135$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.04 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 37c | 999.3$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.56 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 36c | 998.35$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.94 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 60c | 950.21$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.83 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 63c | 694.44$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked No | 60c | 679.96$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.98 | 284 | 52.5%149 W · 135 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 38c | 669.69$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.98 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 63c | 636.64$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 40c | 611.34$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.56 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c817backed No | 65c | 576.33$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 35c | 527$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.55 | 496 | 50.2%249 W · 247 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed No | 64c | 435.38$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.64 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 63c | 395.63$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 182 | 52.2%95 W · 87 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 64c | 313.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 61c | 261$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 39c | 257$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.48 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e1c6backed No | 63c | 238.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked No | 60c | 199.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Yes | 36c | 196$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 59c | 187$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.47 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 41c | 178$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d8…20f6backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 36c | 160.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed No | 64c | 140$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 36c | 131.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 754 | 53.2%401 W · 353 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…698cbacked No | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked No | 65c | 115.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 164 | 39%64 W · 100 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 65c | 114.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…1f9ebacked Yes | 37c | 81.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 66c | 75.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 34c | 57.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked No | 65c | 48.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed No | 64c | 48.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed No | 64c | 46.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…bed3backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 51.7%196 W · 183 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…46f9backed Yes | 41c | 26.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed No | 65c | 23.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 59c | 20.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked No | 64c | 17.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankeesthis page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.