MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x812cb8eb70c2033aebae531386cba4f3da7b1e9aee8ae292fafb23b9e21fb8b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 40,000$14,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,399.98 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 64c | 21,861$13,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,865.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 7,706$2,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 15c | 7,088$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.65 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 64c | 4,233$2,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.7 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689f…259cbacked New York Yankees | 54c | 2,148$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.75 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 64c | 1,526$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 1,119$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.32 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Yankees | 64c | 975.76$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.9 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 938.95$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 916.57$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 867.89$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.76 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 821.36$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Yankees | 23c | 603.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.29 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked New York Yankees | 56c | 570$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Yankees | 56c | 490$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 478.95$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.7 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed New York Yankees | 64c | 389.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed New York Yankees | 22c | 315.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.39 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 305$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed New York Yankees | 64c | 300.22$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 265.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 260.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 219.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 219.25$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 201.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked New York Yankees | 80c | 186.34$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…ba78backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 105.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80eb…21d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…725dbacked New York Yankees | 60c | 99.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 94.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked New York Yankees | 64c | 65.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 65.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed New York Yankees | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked New York Yankees | 50c | 61.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed New York Yankees | 65c | 59.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 172 | 45.9%79 W · 93 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed New York Yankees | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked New York Yankees | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…1c86backed New York Yankees | 65c | 44.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 42.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed New York Yankees | 64c | 37.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked New York Yankees | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 30.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 29.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed New York Yankees | 64c | 29.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed New York Yankees | 64c | 27.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed New York Yankees | 44c | 22.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed New York Yankees | 64c | 20.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.