Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x847a153d900e510f53c72702a0367f45e672d38ce25bd354fa7800170ee73356
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 803.82$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.75 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 415.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 324.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 230.43$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 201.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 73c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 172.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 167.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 129.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 128.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 125.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes | 30c | 121.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 119.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 113.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked No | 69c | 98.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 87.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed No | 68c | 84.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +256.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 77.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 38c | 69.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 66.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 43c | 65.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 62.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 34c | 49.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 47.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 38.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 37.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 37c | 34.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 42c | 31.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 29.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5259…fc71backed No | 63c | 26.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 69c | 25.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked No | 70c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 75c | 17.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 16.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca24…ed93backed No | 68c | 14.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 71c | 14.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.