Lol · resolved market
LoL: Conviction vs NRG Esports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x848c8112e511851dd235737383cf8981f3cc89bf16ceb56813d4028ce63a5100
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NRG Esportsof Conviction, NRG Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Conviction | 44c | 5,861$2,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,605.41 | 1,635 | 40.2%657 W · 978 L | +48.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa8…cae6backed NRG Esports | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 829 | 53.4%443 W · 386 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked NRG Esports | 56c | 1,577$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.04 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…ca23backed Conviction | 22c | 1,182$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.17 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8f…6b52backed Conviction | 45c | 1,045$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.38 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf06…c9ffbacked NRG Esports | 76c | 972.97$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.83 | 635 | 51.8%329 W · 306 L | +39.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed Conviction | 30c | 756.68$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.89 | 1,492 | 48.4%722 W · 770 L | +47.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…f4e0backed NRG Esports | 12c | 647.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.54 | 650 | 47.4%308 W · 342 L | +24.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed NRG Esports | 17c | 570.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.31 | 249 | 35.3%88 W · 161 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked NRG Esports | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 636 | 46.9%298 W · 338 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Conviction | 26c | 493.14$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 331 | 25.7%85 W · 246 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…66ebbacked NRG Esports | 55c | 490.91$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.91 | 960 | 57.4%551 W · 409 L | +22.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…732abacked NRG Esports | 57c | 436.97$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.97 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…4d75backed NRG Esports | 55c | 361.42$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.64 | 610 | 55.7%340 W · 270 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…be09backed NRG Esports | 56c | 320$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked NRG Esports | 54c | 318.13$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.86 | 1,939 | 42.2%819 W · 1,120 L | -46.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Conviction | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1,525 | 50.6%771 W · 754 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9d…f409backed NRG Esports | 50c | 293.77$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.37 | 149 | 30.9%46 W · 103 L | -11.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…5fa2backed Conviction | 51c | 287.01$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Conviction | 45c | 280.54$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,012 | 47%476 W · 536 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed NRG Esports | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 436 | 42.4%185 W · 251 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked NRG Esports | 73c | 241.77$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 173 | 42.2%73 W · 100 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed NRG Esports | 55c | 216.62$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 232 | 40.5%94 W · 138 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked NRG Esports | 48c | 209.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 252 | 56.3%142 W · 110 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked NRG Esports | 53c | 206.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Conviction | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 648 | 49.8%323 W · 325 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed NRG Esports | 54c | 184.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 798 | 64.3%513 W · 285 L | +32.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…aebbbacked Conviction | 29c | 172.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked NRG Esports | 55c | 158.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Conviction | 49c | 137$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 963 | 48.7%469 W · 494 L | +28.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed NRG Esports | 55c | 127.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 512 | 47.3%242 W · 270 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed NRG Esports | 51c | 123.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 1,545 | 43.8%676 W · 869 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…39a0backed Conviction | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,229 | 45.1%554 W · 675 L | +48.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked NRG Esports | 55c | 118.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 465 | 52.7%245 W · 220 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Conviction | 50c | 117.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Conviction | 42c | 108.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 1,577 | 48.4%764 W · 813 L | +17.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…dacfbacked NRG Esports | 76c | 100.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 289 | 65.1%188 W · 101 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…a0cabacked NRG Esports | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 398 | 32.7%130 W · 268 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Conviction | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -19.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed NRG Esports | 47c | 80.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a9…0e78backed Conviction | 39c | 78.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 393 | 42.2%166 W · 227 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed Conviction | 52c | 75.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 199 | 41.7%83 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Conviction | 58c | 70.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 579 | 47.3%274 W · 305 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Conviction | 43c | 69.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed NRG Esports | 51c | 69.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 505 | 49.3%249 W · 256 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Conviction | 44c | 67.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed NRG Esports | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…db92backed Conviction | 49c | 60.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…9b4ebacked Conviction | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 325 | 54.8%178 W · 147 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Conviction | 44c | 59.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1,270 | 57%724 W · 546 L | +45.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5624…b5c4backed NRG Esports | 33c | 58.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Conviction | 25c | 55.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +24.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked NRG Esports | 50c | 55.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +33.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed NRG Esports | 56c | 53.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Conviction | 47c | 47.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 178 | 40.4%72 W · 106 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…383bbacked Conviction | 52c | 45.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…e042backed Conviction | 53c | 43.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked Conviction | 49c | 40.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed NRG Esports | 50c | 37.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…930fbacked NRG Esports | 53c | 37.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1,216 | 44.4%540 W · 676 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Conviction | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 761 | 29%221 W · 540 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed NRG Esports | 75c | 34.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a48…5474backed Conviction | 53c | 31.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a94…6e31backed Conviction | 64c | 31.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…ea34backed NRG Esports | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 442 | 62.9%278 W · 164 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed NRG Esports | 43c | 27.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 337 | 37.7%127 W · 210 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc4…d48cbacked Conviction | 49c | 26.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 275 | 40.4%111 W · 164 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked NRG Esports | 50c | 22.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 184 | 47.8%88 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked NRG Esports | 50c | 22.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 244 | 45.1%110 W · 134 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb725…93dbbacked Conviction | 50c | 22.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…3cc3backed Conviction | 49c | 21.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed Conviction | 49c | 21.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 156 | 35.9%56 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked NRG Esports | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 251 | 65.7%165 W · 86 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed NRG Esports | 54c | 18.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed NRG Esports | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 742 | 50.5%375 W · 367 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Conviction vs NRG Esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Conviction (+1.5)NRG Esports won
- LoL: Conviction vs NRG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonNRG Esports won
- LoL: Conviction vs NRG Esports - Game 2 WinnerNRG Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.