MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84910bb2df8edfc5b2d2f838cfe0ae5f218533716c3ae41bab04beabd8fc2f66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 7,317$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 7,121$4,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,848.56 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 5,133$3,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,104.7 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 49c | 2,142$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 1,350$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.2 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 1,300$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 1,020$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.3 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 686.67$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.56 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 602.22$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.09 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 585$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 507.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 404.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.48 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 397.55$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 327.07$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 310$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 224.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 186.45$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 170$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 168.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 139.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 138.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 98.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 67.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 54.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3c…8290backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Atlanta Braves | 22c | 48.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 38.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 23.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.