Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8498cc443a82def03b48111a8be2ad0e4953805905fe2144de6756c10a384adb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 44c | 747.87$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.65 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 196$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 183.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 158.39$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 71c | 145.63$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 74c | 134.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 57c | 123.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 116.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 115.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 108$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 55c | 106.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 76.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 37c | 76.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 56.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 49c | 50.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 50.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 41c | 48.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 42.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 60c | 41.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 39.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…804bbacked Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 31.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…4407backed No | 68c | 29.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 50c | 27.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 22.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 17.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…f36fbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 16.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.