NBA · resolved market

Will the Utah Jazz finish with the worst regular season record?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84bc8f37f9c7443db5c2d107c8c394f830f848d3239cb18c3cf9791c6eb9ba67

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 13, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $21,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,435 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4e25…d7a7backed No	3c	2,732$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.01	165	37%61 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc254…b899backed Yes	5c	2,156$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,050.68	61	21.3%13 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00e2…d56abacked Yes	2c	1,462$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,431.3	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+109.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked No	1c	1,083$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	99	4%4 W · 95 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes	6c	899.34$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$846.61	1,602	11.8%189 W · 1,413 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes	36c	611.02$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.02	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	560.04$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$544.23	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes	5c	294.37$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279.1	53	9.4%5 W · 48 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4495…a252backed Yes	62c	208.69$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.69	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xccac…ab7dbacked Yes	51c	82.42$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.42	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-3.5wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes	47c	62.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.05	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc20b…2cc0backed No	54c	54.21$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.38	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.7wins	-0.45per pick	62cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes	58c	52$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.84	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd32d…3c32backed Yes	36c	40$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.6	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes	36c	33.14$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.14	342	46.8%160 W · 182 L	+18.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4111…90e2backed Yes	76c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.96	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc68…47bdbacked Yes	45c	24.92$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.6	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.22per pick	65cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Utah Jazz finish with the worst regular season record?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event