Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84d2d079aca0fe6089f48db4dfa0a0345c2bbbd3a7a14065f3d734ffbfaa86b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 191.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 173.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 39c | 149.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 143.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…8527backed Yes | 46c | 109.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 79c | 104$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 38c | 100.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 100.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 37c | 94.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 81.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa276…3584backed No | 64c | 76.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 34c | 73.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 73.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 71.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 40c | 63.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 61.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed Yes | 21c | 59.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 59c | 55.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 54.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 67c | 54.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 52.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43a…61cbbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 49.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 43c | 46.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 41c | 46.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked Yes | 45c | 43.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 38c | 37.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 61c | 35.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 42c | 35.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed Yes | 30c | 34.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 34.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 33.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 37c | 33.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 35c | 28.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 58c | 28.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 63c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 43c | 23.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 22.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 68c | 22.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 21.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 58c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 65c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.