MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84f4906bbdc629ed4ceb740c0a8b0d3f2b75dea22b032dd9c2a531c12f856c4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 2,084$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.3 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 44c | 2,077$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…bfb5backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 1,901$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 1,845$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…bc89backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 1,800$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.3 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 1,185$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 1,006$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.33 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 568.41$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 45c | 565.65$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 487.24$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Chicago Cubs | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 447.91$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.18 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…7b03backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 411.21$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 404.1$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Chicago Cubs | 19c | 382.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.82 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 300$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.22 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 299.84$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…d412backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 295.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce6…f60abacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 281.73$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 236$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 217$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 197.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 170$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 164.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…3e23backed Colorado Rockies | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 151.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 134.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 129$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 126.12$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…8a2cbacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 101.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 80.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 76.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…28f3backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 57.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 52.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 51.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 47.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…3d27backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 41.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 39.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 39.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…1d30backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 39.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…3503backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 37.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 33.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…d98dbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 31.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Colorado Rockies | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 28.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c04…a98fbacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.