Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x850307c4a99914011f5bd91511887f402feb361d3a4d73d5c7df67878536ef03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 4,711$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Over | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 77c | 1,039$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.96 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…63e6backed Over | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 24c | 599.62$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.91 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Over | 76c | 554.42$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.06 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 77c | 520.03$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Under | 11c | 392.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…fc20backed Over | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…1d12backed Over | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 77c | 207.79$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 23c | 170.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 76c | 144.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742d…66b0backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 77c | 82.87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 25c | 72.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 24c | 71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 23c | 70.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Over | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Over | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…b13bbacked Over | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…98b6backed Over | 77c | 30.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed Over | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef1…8ec6backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…0b87backed Over | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d2…cf3bbacked Over | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…6b26backed Over | 77c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5this page
- AC Milan vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AC Milan vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.