Tennis · resolved market
Bastad: Emiliana Arango vs Lea Nilsson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x852bc02d650e7dbe029e443e97b61101ede12bb44d0b9975cb5dfc189d0d2918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Emiliana Arangoof Emiliana Arango, Lea Nilsson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Lea Nilsson | 16c | 25,200$4,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,126.31 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Emiliana Arango | 73c | 5,083$3,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.73 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Lea Nilsson | 18c | 2,197$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.98 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Lea Nilsson | 16c | 1,840$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.07 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Emiliana Arango | 76c | 1,001$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.65 | 4,602 | 67.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L | +309.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Lea Nilsson | 12c | 602.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Emiliana Arango | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.23 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…9779backed Emiliana Arango | 74c | 384.68$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lea Nilsson | 18c | 344.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Emiliana Arango | 67c | 302.35$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Emiliana Arango | 73c | 226.13$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Lea Nilsson | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Lea Nilsson | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,528 | 36.2%914 W · 1,614 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Lea Nilsson | 27c | 185.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Emiliana Arango | 73c | 185.18$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Lea Nilsson | 13c | 184.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 2,069 | 46.7%966 W · 1,103 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Emiliana Arango | 74c | 159.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 881 | 57.9%510 W · 371 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Lea Nilsson | 27c | 148.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Lea Nilsson | 27c | 142.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Lea Nilsson | 12c | 118.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Emiliana Arango | 77c | 115.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Lea Nilsson | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Lea Nilsson | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,179 | 52.8%623 W · 556 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Lea Nilsson | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…3833backed Emiliana Arango | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Lea Nilsson | 26c | 88.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…6dbebacked Lea Nilsson | 28c | 72.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 36.6%86 W · 149 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f9…45a7backed Emiliana Arango | 74c | 68.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 380 | 66.3%252 W · 128 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Lea Nilsson | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Lea Nilsson | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Lea Nilsson | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Lea Nilsson | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,772 | 52.1%923 W · 849 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Emiliana Arango | 74c | 52.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 1,068 | 57.4%613 W · 455 L | +21.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Emiliana Arango | 74c | 51.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 1,960 | 43.8%858 W · 1,102 L | -20.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Emiliana Arango | 74c | 50.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 302 | 58.6%177 W · 125 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Emiliana Arango | 80c | 50.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 235 | 81.7%192 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 80cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Lea Nilsson | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 574 | 49.1%282 W · 292 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Emiliana Arango | 70c | 44.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lea Nilsson | 26c | 44.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Emiliana Arango | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…f8d9backed Lea Nilsson | 26c | 42.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bb…c5dbbacked Lea Nilsson | 34c | 37.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Lea Nilsson | 30c | 33.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Emiliana Arango | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 627 | 49.4%310 W · 317 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.