Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x854c2ba54b32f79a3c97044f1b0a21346a42d2d2b67ddbb65dd216e6f4dc6275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe35a…e615backed No | 6c | 6,548$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.04 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 3,022$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 12c | 1,403$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 5c | 631.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 621.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 43c | 499.97$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…583bbacked Yes | 32c | 482.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c5…1138backed Yes | 54c | 446.82$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed No | 5c | 416.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed No | 76c | 400.89$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 379.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…565cbacked Yes | 40c | 264.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 65c | 246.28$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…a704backed No | 55c | 241.3$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 73c | 202.86$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 52c | 196.67$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 77c | 139$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 55c | 120.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 56c | 114.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 70c | 113.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 105.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 20c | 103$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…2c08backed Yes | 56c | 93.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 90.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 64c | 88.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 87.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 83.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 25c | 81.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 80.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes | 80c | 77.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…385abacked No | 73c | 73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0555…942abacked No | 80c | 56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 70c | 50.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 55c | 48.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 40c | 45.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 56c | 39.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 80c | 38.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb0…1b9ebacked No | 33c | 36.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…4d7abacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 68c | 33.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked No | 30c | 33.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb61d…b3acbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 71c | 23.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked No | 74c | 22.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed No | 58c | 19.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 19.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 64c | 16.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or higher on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.