Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89033486c0bbdea9a9a432bd2d836ee70aa7122e2d1ed3d09b98a8057788ab23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 2c | 2,376$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 16c | 1,232$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.91 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 11c | 637.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 5c | 584.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked Yes | 41c | 493.96$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 15c | 458.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 72c | 434.48$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…0103backed Yes | 59c | 418.13$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 391.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 374.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 345$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Yes | 5c | 319.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 78c | 217.52$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed No | 71c | 201.07$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 14c | 183.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 157.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 20c | 145.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb14a…8814backed Yes | 69c | 143.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 55c | 143.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…c157backed Yes | 10c | 133.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 14c | 131.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…dbc1backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 42c | 124.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked No | 73c | 122.71$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 14c | 117.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…616dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5947…c7dcbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 52c | 96.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 60c | 93.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…4625backed Yes | 69c | 71.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 39c | 66.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 38c | 59.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 67c | 55.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…db97backed Yes | 76c | 52.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f6…af9dbacked No | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992f…c9febacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 63c | 37.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791a…ff06backed Yes | 58c | 34.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 60c | 33.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1e…c6a1backed Yes | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 65c | 30.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on January 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or higher on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.