Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85525b248e15db1f58d4839d77fc1489fb26422fbd2e372abe4eee7177cdefef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,598 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 57c | 1,285$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.12 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaec…2694backed Yes | 1c | 1,022$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 43c | 766.5$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.26 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 674.06$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed Yes | 54c | 673.11$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.28 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 638.91$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.45 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 610.85$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 50c | 505.81$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.53 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 500$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 491$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.18 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 21c | 418.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.01 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 40c | 405.35$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.13 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed No | 67c | 394.09$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 56c | 377.49$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.92 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 52c | 359.41$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.32 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4f94backed Yes | 63c | 311.06$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 75c | 300.29$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.49 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 44c | 288.74$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 9c | 279.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.79 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 49c | 275.19$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 273.54$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 44c | 265.78$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.07 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 55c | 263.96$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.06 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 37c | 258$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 49c | 233.5$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 226.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 221.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 47c | 206.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 206.53$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 42c | 206.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 202.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 49c | 199.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.47 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked Yes | 44c | 190.51$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ea…32e2backed Yes | 55c | 181.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…ca20backed Yes | 47c | 181$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 173.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 51c | 164.9$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 13c | 164.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 44c | 161.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ad2cbacked Yes | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 65c | 156.24$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…2600backed No | 54c | 143.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…7949backed Yes | 47c | 141$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 53c | 138.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 45c | 137.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 41c | 136.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 54c | 129.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 59c | 127.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d80…493fbacked Yes | 41c | 125.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 54c | 119.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 119.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed No | 67c | 114.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…747bbacked Yes | 34c | 111.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +208%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…007fbacked Yes | 27c | 111.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 10c | 110.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 45c | 110.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 54c | 108.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 105.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 46c | 103.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc23…d4cbbacked Yes | 48c | 102.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 12c | 100.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…c6c5backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…7642backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 31c | 98.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 49c | 94.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 93.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 59c | 93.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 32c | 90.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 44c | 84.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 59c | 83.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 82.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Yes | 50c | 80.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 66c | 80.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 61c | 76.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked Yes | 47c | 73.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed No | 51c | 72.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 75c | 67.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 53c | 66.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 38c | 66.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 32c | 66.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 41c | 64.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27a…f59fbacked Yes | 46c | 63.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…a7f2backed No | 53c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 50c | 62.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 48c | 62.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 33c | 60.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…9644backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…0062backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 59.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…3c1ebacked Yes | 69c | 58.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -49%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.