Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58579ca66bf841aa80b8544bf317b8e9a1ea23fcf2831722d371bf8d0669ad9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,113 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 2,963$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed No | 74c | 1,696$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.51 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 49c | 1,367$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.46 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 72c | 1,139$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.85 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…ad64backed No | 1c | 1,068$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 25c | 1,033$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.71 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 41c | 822.1$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.09 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 30c | 767.73$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.74 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 717.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 675.01$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.79 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked No | 78c | 638.85$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 619.61$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 565.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.47 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 15c | 523.73$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.73 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 18c | 441.39$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.78 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 27c | 431$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.2 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 384.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 384.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.27 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…1ddbbacked Yes | 24c | 364.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 19c | 344.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.12 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 65c | 328.98$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 8c | 328$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.18 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 27c | 325.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.28 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 20c | 310.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.2 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed Yes | 24c | 310$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.78 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 308.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 294.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 29c | 264.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.9 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 18c | 260$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 258$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.33 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 72c | 251.84$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 20c | 249.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.29 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 245.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 27c | 219.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.99 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4f94backed Yes | 42c | 201.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 192.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed No | 77c | 178.18$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 174.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.07 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 29c | 172.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.48 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…3489backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 66c | 156.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 33c | 149.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 147.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 27c | 144.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.15 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 143.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 13c | 140.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 70c | 140$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1a…d0eebacked Yes | 29c | 138$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +366.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…0679backed Yes | 30c | 135$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 25c | 134.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.77 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 130.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 15c | 130.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 37c | 128.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…afbabacked Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…7a32backed No | 53c | 118.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebe…5827backed Yes | 31c | 118$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 18c | 116.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.39 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2156…1cafbacked Yes | 31c | 114$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 22c | 112.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 70c | 107.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 102.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…63d8backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…f744backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +350.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…c6c5backed Yes | 25c | 96.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e7…8fd4backed Yes | 23c | 92.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 88.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 68c | 82.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 81.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 31c | 81.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 31c | 79.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7c…b91dbacked No | 76c | 79.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 19c | 77.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…319abacked Yes | 28c | 73.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 24c | 72.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 27c | 71.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 67.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47e…3862backed No | 71c | 67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 34c | 66.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 64.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 72c | 62.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 32c | 61.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 24c | 61.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 80c | 59.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 58.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c156backed No | 77c | 57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 56.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 56.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 34c | 56.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe354…db85backed Yes | 20c | 55.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 63c | 55.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.