Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22addbd69bf9016c1ef00deeb0af1327ff4fcf5f5cf751f89d25ed66317318e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,785 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,543$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.92 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f04…b5a1backed Yes | 0c | 7,052$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,849$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed No | 80c | 974.99$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.89 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked Yes | 22c | 962.06$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 896.15$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.04 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 19c | 811.85$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.03 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 16c | 779.81$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.36 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 22c | 767.9$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.42 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 17c | 570.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 11c | 556.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…1ddbbacked Yes | 16c | 494.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 457.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 10c | 444.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 434.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 13c | 379.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 369.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 367.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…c2f6backed Yes | 16c | 350.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 335.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 314.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 311.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 15c | 308.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 292.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 13c | 290.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 9c | 279.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 13c | 274.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 272.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 19c | 267.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 265.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 258$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 250.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 17c | 246.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 12c | 236.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 16c | 233.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 14c | 222.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 15c | 209.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 11c | 182.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 166.8$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 77c | 157.97$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 153.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…9f68backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 15c | 135.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 11c | 135.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 131.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 77c | 127.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed No | 79c | 126.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 15c | 122.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b30…d326backed Yes | 13c | 114.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 17c | 109.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 17c | 106.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 18c | 104.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a98…e8edbacked Yes | 18c | 104$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e7…6037backed Yes | 19c | 104$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 24c | 102.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…c6c5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…e0afbacked Yes | 11c | 94.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 94.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 93.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd732…1368backed Yes | 21c | 92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 15c | 91.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 86.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 19c | 82.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 18c | 81.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 22c | 81.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2569…5044backed Yes | 21c | 81.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 19c | 80.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 13c | 78.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 19c | 78.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 21c | 77.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 18c | 77.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 19c | 75.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc23…d4cbbacked Yes | 20c | 75.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 20c | 75.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 20c | 74.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 23c | 74.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…0cc3backed No | 76c | 73.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…3489backed Yes | 23c | 72.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 77c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 23c | 66.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 66.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 63.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 79c | 61.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 26c | 50.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 24c | 49.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 48.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 80c | 31.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…d95dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 76c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 79c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.