Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Mmoh (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x855ae545c3a0194e742b8cb7817d375ee8ebf11ead7d2d51871f7162df9ea6a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mmohof Khachanov, Mmoh
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Khachanov | 1c | 2,196$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acb…d2c7backed Khachanov | 52c | 1,967$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mmoh | 48c | 1,452$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.21 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Khachanov | 49c | 967.13$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78f…72dbbacked Mmoh | 55c | 414.39$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Khachanov | 50c | 202$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Mmoh | 50c | 185$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1163…3642backed Mmoh | 54c | 122.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked Mmoh | 50c | 102.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7f…9485backed Mmoh | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +425.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Mmoh | 49c | 99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Mmoh | 49c | 87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Mmoh | 49c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed Khachanov | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Khachanov | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Khachanov | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Khachanov | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Khachanov | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Khachanov | 47c | 44.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Khachanov | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 48cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Khachanov | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Khachanov | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Khachanov | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…3e7ebacked Mmoh | 55c | 30.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Khachanov | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Khachanov | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Khachanov | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Mmoh (+1.5)this page
- Hong Kong Tennis Open: Michael Mmoh vs Karen KhachanovMmoh won
- Mmoh vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Mmoh vs. Khachanov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Mmoh vs KhachanovMmoh won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.