Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Wales (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a0b83b7a9f3fbf852816152a59f4cb9964e6198ad6f7d4f2c8cf5e5ca07614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ghanaof Wales, Ghana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Wales | 6c | 16,244$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.26 | 462 | 23.2%107 W · 355 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Wales | 21c | 1,804$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.43 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Wales | 23c | 1,571$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.07 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Wales | 20c | 664.79$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.22 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Wales | 19c | 608$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Wales | 23c | 468.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 239 | 40.6%97 W · 142 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Wales | 14c | 430$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 331 | 20.8%69 W · 262 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Wales | 23c | 332.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…8ddabacked Wales | 6c | 312.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Wales | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Ghana | 79c | 180$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Ghana | 76c | 131.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Wales | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae5…db8cbacked Wales | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed Ghana | 74c | 106.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 171 | 49.1%84 W · 87 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Ghana | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Wales | 24c | 59.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…10d5backed Wales | 24c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Ghana | 78c | 42.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 815 | 54.8%447 W · 368 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Ghana | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Ghana | 78c | 21.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Ghana | 78c | 17.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Ghana | 78c | 16.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…3267backed Ghana | 78c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Ghana | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wales (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Ghana (-1.5)Wales won
- Spread: Wales (-2.5)Ghana won
- Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5Over won
- Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5Under won
- Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5Under won
- Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5Under won
- Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.