Fifa International · resolved market
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c75261231447ddaa7f3b7f6e93e1e9cbbe03eb19d155d7ee2f6e097182303b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 5c | 6,449$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.78 | 146 | 12.3%18 W · 128 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 6c | 1,250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 331 | 20.8%69 W · 262 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 24c | 1,200$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.43 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 22c | 618.18$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 77c | 416$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 19c | 320.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 317.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 22c | 312$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 238 | 20.6%49 W · 189 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 6c | 299$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 197 | 46.2%91 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 77c | 188$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Under | 80c | 175.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 77c | 162$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 13c | 150.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 76c | 133.74$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 77c | 119.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…cba8backed Over | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Under | 78c | 107.63$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | -9.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 22c | 100.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 23c | 92.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Over | 22c | 69.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 184 | 35.3%65 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 79c | 15.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 187 | 64.2%120 W · 67 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Ghana (-1.5)Wales won
- Spread: Wales (-1.5)Ghana won
- Spread: Wales (-2.5)Ghana won
- Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5Over won
- Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5Under won
- Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5Under won
- Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.