Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85abdde69554bff9f019d8e9653d9c1bc4c5c0ebb058b655561eb94fb99e4689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bilibili Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, Top Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Top Esports | 41c | 1,638$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.77 | 1,029 | 52.3%538 W · 491 L | +27.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Top Esports | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Top Esports | 20c | 1,453$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.6 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Bilibili Gaming | 80c | 1,370$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.42 | 511 | 60.3%308 W · 203 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Bilibili Gaming | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 292 | 40.1%117 W · 175 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…0ac1backed Bilibili Gaming | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 505 | 47.7%241 W · 264 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Top Esports | 42c | 691.21$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.92 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Bilibili Gaming | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 194 | 51%99 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked Top Esports | 42c | 472.33$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.55 | 173 | 57.8%100 W · 73 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Bilibili Gaming | 58c | 399.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 675 | 49%331 W · 344 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Bilibili Gaming | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Bilibili Gaming | 58c | 281.88$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.39 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…1bd5backed Bilibili Gaming | 58c | 218.97$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Bilibili Gaming | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Bilibili Gaming | 59c | 130$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Bilibili Gaming | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 223 | 50.2%112 W · 111 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…9898backed Bilibili Gaming | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Bilibili Gaming | 55c | 85.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Top Esports | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Bilibili Gaming | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Top Esports | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | +32.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf06…c9ffbacked Bilibili Gaming | 80c | 83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 633 | 52%329 W · 304 L | +39.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…f3b8backed Top Esports | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 289 | 23.5%68 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…ad51backed Bilibili Gaming | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Top Esports | 41c | 36.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,156 | 49.1%568 W · 588 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)Bilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.