Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85adc939724a7a856a49ec524fa4f461c5f8bdd9d427b6cf723749afda92066e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,113 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x690b…9145backed No | 68c | 2,900$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…dec2backed Yes | 32c | 2,900$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 28c | 735.55$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.98 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 620.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 27c | 504.8$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.87 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 31c | 503.2$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.41 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed No | 80c | 499.07$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 25c | 474.17$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 472.06$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.7 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 460$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 436.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 35c | 369.85$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked No | 71c | 364.22$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.91 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 359.27$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.96 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 336.69$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.78 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 35c | 311.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 32c | 300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked No | 68c | 299.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 20c | 295.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 29c | 277.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 73c | 272.04$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 256.64$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 38c | 251.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.33 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 250$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 248.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 32c | 243.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 233.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 29c | 232.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked No | 79c | 214.45$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 209.32$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 33c | 206.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 69c | 194.22$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 33c | 190$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 34c | 178.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 65c | 170.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 33c | 166.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 166.22$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 31c | 157.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 29c | 148.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 145.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 27c | 140.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 25c | 134.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 74c | 132.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…5726backed Yes | 39c | 129.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 127$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 32c | 125.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…204dbacked Yes | 33c | 123.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 33c | 122.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 21c | 121.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1014…b701backed Yes | 29c | 120.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 22c | 119.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 39c | 119.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 30c | 118$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 32c | 117.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 115.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75c…3fffbacked Yes | 34c | 115$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 42c | 109.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 27c | 108.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…9323backed Yes | 34c | 98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 32c | 96.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 30c | 95.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…bbdabacked Yes | 32c | 93.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 66c | 92.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 68c | 92.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 90.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 89.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 27c | 77.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 68c | 77.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde58…b901backed No | 69c | 76.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +661%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 34c | 74.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f06…0e0fbacked Yes | 38c | 74.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…4300backed Yes | 32c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 73.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 73.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 28c | 72.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…5ba1backed No | 69c | 71.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…d87abacked Yes | 33c | 70.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 71c | 70.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 69.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 69.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 21c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 23c | 66.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 31c | 65.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…04fdbacked Yes | 37c | 62.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 33c | 60.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…e3e5backed No | 68c | 56.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 35c | 56.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 51.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed No | 80c | 50.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.