Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21f1762a7d3f1e79f6c659d03df9b91daab610636814dda9d71864ecf2beee21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,061 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 2,091$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,345$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 3c | 906.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 10c | 856.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 652$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 563.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 522.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 394.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 11c | 393$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 365.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 314.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 312.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked Yes | 9c | 277.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 19c | 222.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2680…a387backed Yes | 16c | 209.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 204.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked No | 56c | 173.95$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 7c | 173.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 158.56$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 24c | 154.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 16c | 145.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 7c | 145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…7e7bbacked Yes | 18c | 144$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 140.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 17c | 136.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…f41bbacked Yes | 44c | 128.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 80c | 125.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…45acbacked Yes | 15c | 124.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 19c | 122.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 119.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 10c | 119$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 17c | 115.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 16c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 17c | 109.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked Yes | 14c | 109.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 17c | 105.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 100.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 14c | 100.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ae34backed Yes | 17c | 93.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +210.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa945…4549backed Yes | 11c | 91.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 88.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…7810backed Yes | 14c | 88.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 14c | 87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 16c | 84.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…a8d1backed Yes | 17c | 77.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 77.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 68.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb43…2a6bbacked Yes | 18c | 66.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 17c | 61.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5737…0343backed Yes | 20c | 61.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +200%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 25c | 59.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 50.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 78c | 46.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…7a9dbacked Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed No | 80c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.