Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6706e631a4520c9e051f83f1c6324336e9486ae77d4a7ad813efe4ec291ba134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,020 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 3c | 6,090$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.03 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 3,118$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.03 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,710$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,460$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.82 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 74c | 1,307$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.39 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 913.44$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 912.44$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.61 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 24c | 777.2$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.38 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 13c | 747.23$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 6c | 661.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 27c | 649.55$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.84 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 9c | 634.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 623$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 454.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 448.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.92 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 8c | 409.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 400.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 392.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 79c | 379.57$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 26c | 365.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 69c | 346.35$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 32c | 346.29$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.27 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 53c | 336.09$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 312.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 7c | 307.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…33c2backed Yes | 12c | 289.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 12c | 281.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 279.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 73c | 277$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 18c | 261.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 9c | 259.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 10c | 255.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 27c | 239.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…5726backed Yes | 31c | 235.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 13c | 234.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes | 13c | 221.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…374fbacked Yes | 44c | 218.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 14c | 211.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 5c | 211.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 24c | 204.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 22c | 188.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 25c | 180.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 12c | 176.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 172.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…14cabacked Yes | 10c | 167.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 17c | 157.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 38c | 156.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked Yes | 29c | 152.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…204dbacked Yes | 19c | 148.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…ab39backed No | 70c | 143.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 24c | 136.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 24c | 136.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 10c | 131.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked Yes | 27c | 130.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 126.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…929bbacked No | 79c | 121.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…d440backed No | 66c | 121.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 120.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 57c | 119$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 33c | 112.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…28fcbacked Yes | 11c | 106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 11c | 103.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…e35bbacked Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 34c | 101.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 15c | 101.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 28c | 97.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 15c | 86.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…69e1backed Yes | 30c | 83.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 45c | 82.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 14c | 76.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 14c | 75.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…c042backed Yes | 54c | 73.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb05b…58afbacked Yes | 48c | 70.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 19c | 63.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 48c | 62.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 59c | 58.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked Yes | 54c | 58.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…19f8backed Yes | 45c | 55.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…251abacked Yes | 27c | 54.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…04fdbacked Yes | 36c | 51.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 51.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…9e8dbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…c2d0backed No | 60c | 49.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…149fbacked Yes | 22c | 49.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0b…b89bbacked Yes | 26c | 46.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked Yes | 39c | 44.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 33c | 40.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x227b…549abacked Yes | 35c | 40.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 39c | 36.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.