Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56c38adeae35f63cbf2b35c8543c3a34b3bdbc43b37d9bb53d8752ca7831af08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,662 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 1,729$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 68c | 1,259$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.41 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 41c | 1,184$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.29 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 68c | 934.16$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.16 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 71c | 871.73$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.6 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 20c | 822.23$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.78 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 652$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…374fbacked Yes | 36c | 518.2$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 417.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.86 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 408.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.9 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 6c | 382.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 74c | 382.4$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.65 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 374.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 36c | 328.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 55c | 324.98$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 307.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.49 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 29c | 288.77$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 31c | 288.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked Yes | 24c | 281.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.73 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 47c | 260.93$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 78c | 259.35$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 239.59$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.09 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked No | 77c | 226.46$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.01 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 216.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.18 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 211.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 79c | 194.86$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 36c | 184.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 31c | 178.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 174.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 60c | 166$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 31c | 165.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 74c | 160.75$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 25c | 159.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.35 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 19c | 158.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 41c | 149.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.81 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 34c | 144.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 137.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 74c | 132.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 128.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed No | 80c | 125.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 35c | 119.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 22c | 119$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 117.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 70c | 111.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 67c | 111.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 109.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 26c | 109.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 42c | 108.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 70c | 107.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 30c | 103.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 29c | 101.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 99.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 27c | 97.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 96.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 69c | 95.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 32c | 94.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 46c | 92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 33c | 90.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 25c | 88.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 86.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…2793backed Yes | 29c | 85.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 34c | 84.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 81.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 57c | 78.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 55c | 76.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked No | 75c | 73.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 29c | 70.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 69.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 67.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 18c | 66.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 48c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…0c9dbacked Yes | 68c | 60.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…ab39backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 31c | 59.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 78c | 59.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 25c | 59.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 23c | 57.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…9e8dbacked Yes | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 54.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 35c | 53.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 28c | 53.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 41c | 51.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…882abacked Yes | 39c | 51.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 40c | 50.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…90c3backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 26c | 49.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 62c | 49.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 56c | 47.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 26c | 46.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.