Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Hamad Medjedovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85e9a09a84d34f110624f4f940154fb7fa236a24bf4ea35c57688ccffd917b5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Altmaierof Altmaier, Medjedovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Medjedovic | 74c | 23,917$17,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,780.88 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Altmaier | 26c | 14,982$3,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,086.82 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Altmaier | 64c | 7,112$4,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,542.65 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Altmaier | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Altmaier | 31c | 4,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Medjedovic | 65c | 3,830$2,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470.92 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Medjedovic | 53c | 2,791$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.19 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Altmaier | 33c | 2,664$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.72 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Medjedovic | 36c | 2,479$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.44 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Altmaier | 25c | 2,182$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.98 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Medjedovic | 37c | 1,902$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.37 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Altmaier | 37c | 1,515$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.07 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Medjedovic | 38c | 1,400$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.3 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…3386backed Medjedovic | 72c | 1,272$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…1208backed Medjedovic | 60c | 1,257$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.73 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Altmaier | 47c | 1,230$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.44 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Altmaier | 26c | 750$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Altmaier | 40c | 740.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.83 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Altmaier | 25c | 722.92$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.22 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Medjedovic | 77c | 700.56$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.01 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Altmaier | 44c | 688.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.51 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Altmaier | 44c | 640$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.73 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Medjedovic | 50c | 555.15$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.52 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0447…60abbacked Altmaier | 73c | 517.81$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Altmaier | 39c | 491.16$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.29 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Altmaier | 29c | 402.25$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.53 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Altmaier | 26c | 373$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.02 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Altmaier | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Altmaier | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Altmaier | 31c | 349.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.31 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Altmaier | 61c | 338.12$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.49 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Altmaier | 38c | 326.6$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Altmaier | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Medjedovic | 69c | 290.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Altmaier | 63c | 250$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Altmaier | 40c | 220$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Altmaier | 47c | 210.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.75 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Altmaier | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Medjedovic | 76c | 181.55$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.98 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Altmaier | 30c | 180$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Altmaier | 36c | 174.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Altmaier | 32c | 155$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Altmaier | 58c | 154.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Altmaier | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Altmaier | 69c | 153$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Altmaier | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +62%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Medjedovic | 55c | 88.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Altmaier | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Altmaier | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Altmaier | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…1bdcbacked Medjedovic | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Altmaier | 25c | 53.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…df6fbacked Altmaier | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2659…d77ebacked Medjedovic | 33c | 46.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e7…9e61backed Altmaier | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Altmaier | 59c | 34.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.