NFL · resolved market
Will 115-120 million people watch Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x863dd1ea345f87ae3409189ef5a13d5a3ae782b3a3965680bb2583300caed643
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f42…2af2backed Yes | 3c | 2,038$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 25c | 410.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 15c | 332.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 22c | 172$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 76c | 166$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 23c | 128.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 26c | 115.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 107.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…0021backed No | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 77c | 102.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 40.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 115-120 million people watch Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will 100-105 million people watch Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will 105-110 million people watch Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will 110-115 million people watch Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will 120-125 million people watch Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will 125-130 million people watch Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will 130-135 million people watch Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will 135 million or more people watch Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will less than 100 million people watch Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.