Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86809a6e47d7ea0fdf95b5ec715515a19aebc567bd496dc0c3e1c4c3e55c8c9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e0c…192cbacked Yes | 29c | 3,028$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c4…56a3backed No | 71c | 1,530$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…7370backed No | 71c | 1,482$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 542.03$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 291.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 261.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 255$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 236.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 21c | 223.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 23c | 189.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 79c | 170.92$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 151.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9023…1143backed Yes | 28c | 149.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 79c | 149$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 143.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 142.56$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 24c | 141.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 139.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 123.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 17c | 120.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 76c | 119.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 110.78$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 22c | 109.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 20c | 108.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 83.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 79.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 26c | 78.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 17c | 77.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 17c | 76.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 20c | 75.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 71.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 22c | 68.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 78c | 63.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 25c | 59.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 22c | 55.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 52.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 20c | 51.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 50.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc215…c9bcbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 79c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 31.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 77c | 31.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a098backed No | 79c | 28.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 71c | 24.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…a2d4backed No | 76c | 22.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 21.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81d…026dbacked No | 75c | 17.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 71c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…03ddbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x119a…b522backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or higher on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.