Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or higher on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x827d2bc2873b416b997588647c756e06ca6a68e89edeed1cdac513e16773cafe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,882 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 3,709$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 15c | 1,414$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.14 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 50c | 1,082$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.09 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 844.5$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 821.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 56c | 665.47$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.7 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed Yes | 50c | 623.95$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.65 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 66c | 607.5$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.76 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 66c | 500.33$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.23 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 431.93$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 61c | 360.54$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.72 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 318.81$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.73 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 46c | 263.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 255$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.31 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 51c | 233.17$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 45c | 205$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed No | 50c | 199.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 23c | 189.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.67 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed No | 52c | 169$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed No | 52c | 161.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 149.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.87 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 54c | 142.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 27c | 139.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 46c | 138.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 74c | 136.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 48c | 135.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 53c | 130.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed Yes | 42c | 125$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 61c | 123.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 121.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a098backed Yes | 36c | 113.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 46c | 112.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 62c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 108.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed No | 44c | 105.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 28c | 105$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…f64ebacked Yes | 57c | 104.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 43c | 102.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 52c | 101.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed No | 75c | 99.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 72c | 94.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…4493backed No | 43c | 94.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 21c | 89.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 61c | 88.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 34c | 87.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 77c | 85.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 61c | 76.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ea…4558backed Yes | 46c | 74.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 53c | 71.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 52c | 71.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 28c | 70.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 57c | 69.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Yes | 52c | 68.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 67.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 60c | 66.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 65.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e9…eb7dbacked No | 47c | 63.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 38c | 61.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 41c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 55c | 59.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 59.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 27c | 52.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 54c | 51.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba9…ce5bbacked No | 40c | 49.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 50c | 48.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 44c | 45.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 25c | 45.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 72c | 42.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 59c | 42.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 69c | 40.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 40.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…240ebacked Yes | 46c | 39.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 38.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb8…c6f5backed No | 68c | 38.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 34c | 37.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…dc0cbacked No | 64c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e74…9eaebacked No | 41c | 36.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 57c | 35.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 60c | 34.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 60c | 34.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa989…3a6fbacked No | 65c | 34.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed No | 75c | 33.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…0051backed No | 58c | 31.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…b707backed No | 45c | 31.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 50c | 31.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or higher on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.