Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x868bd62fe0616d98c9d95dccd103de935e73ffb20e6b633c721efff1bc331409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 1,072$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 3c | 677.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 275.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 5c | 263.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 16c | 211.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 43c | 204$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 169.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 156.2$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 154.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 135.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 14c | 126.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…66a6backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 80.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…6278backed Yes | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 64c | 52.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…2c0cbacked Yes | 38c | 43.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 26c | 38.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 33.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…4298backed No | 73c | 30.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 37c | 30.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 40c | 30.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 78c | 30.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 29.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 29.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 29.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa75…18aebacked No | 64c | 26.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 70c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 70c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.