Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a58bb721d31c14dd902478bd3e7368b813a293f0359515df53fa19ee5b51a03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 1,140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,049$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 4c | 799.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 662.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 9c | 373.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 287$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 219$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7fd6backed Yes | 21c | 203.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 189.63$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 76c | 186.2$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 19c | 178.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 6c | 172.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 157.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 139.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 101$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 98.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…66a6backed Yes | 26c | 93.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 32c | 63.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 46c | 57.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 73c | 51.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 43.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 31.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 77c | 26.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 24.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 50c | 23.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 23.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 21.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2a…14afbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.