Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed68bd25f49ccf71d04525459d6e3294068635a74698519a41aad5cce63f92ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 15c | 1,100$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 78c | 801.51$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.62 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 30c | 702.43$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.77 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 65c | 699.37$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.25 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 2c | 623.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 78c | 545.9$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 6c | 458$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 77c | 421.99$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 331.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.47 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 34c | 277$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 257.16$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed No | 9c | 224.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked No | 12c | 212.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 36c | 206.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 50c | 204.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 6c | 194.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.1 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 193.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes | 78c | 192.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 192.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.93 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 24c | 191.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 15c | 182.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 177.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 28c | 176.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 24c | 165$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 164.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 161.13$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.72 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…d8f8backed No | 25c | 158.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 157.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 20c | 152.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 54c | 113$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 22c | 85.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 82.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 77c | 77.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…6f69backed No | 31c | 70.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 74c | 68.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 75c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 22c | 58.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 70c | 55.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…c03fbacked Yes | 74c | 51.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…a520backed Yes | 75c | 50.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…b219backed Yes | 71c | 42.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7fd6backed No | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 75c | 33.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 33.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ef…5482backed Yes | 78c | 29.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 74c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…701abacked Yes | 59c | 24.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 62c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 72c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.