Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x869d64a5f607a812445765ea707d802503f463830a638ae05af9bb77b5f2d0bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 21c | 384.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 55c | 267.75$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.75 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 42c | 234.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 222.1$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed Yes | 44c | 213.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 9c | 210.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 18c | 141.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 124.79$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 13c | 105.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 102.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 88.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 35c | 84.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 79.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 49c | 67.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked No | 55c | 51.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…b720backed No | 70c | 46.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 44c | 45.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 78c | 40.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 40.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 38.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…c0a0backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 37.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 44c | 34.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 52c | 33.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 49c | 32.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 48c | 22.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 58c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 20.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…8a3cbacked Yes | 72c | 16.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 18?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.