Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33282a7a7e4c862d777986ef861d5b1efd43b1f0d9dfd102eb81bb642272d282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd25…5c83backed Yes | 5c | 1,101$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 24c | 465.26$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 50c | 365.92$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.21 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 38c | 262.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 248.75$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 39c | 237.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 146.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 26c | 135.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…c0a0backed Yes | 59c | 126.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 48c | 123.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 104.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed Yes | 60c | 103.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 102.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed No | 49c | 102.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed Yes | 57c | 87.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 82.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 79.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 74.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 59.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 48c | 58.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 56.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 54.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 67c | 52.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 70c | 48.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2854…7682backed Yes | 56c | 46.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…ed54backed Yes | 48c | 22.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 62c | 21.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 20.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 66c | 15.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 18?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.