Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86a263826a1cdbdd0fc2832b54aa3fac814078318491cb3aa45085287dc027ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 702.34$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.11 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 40c | 618.81$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.15 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 48c | 612.64$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.12 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 72c | 586.34$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.59 | 260 | 61.5%160 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 187.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 167.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 51c | 156.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 60c | 152.72$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 146.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 22c | 132.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 126$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 70c | 123.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 37c | 119.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 31c | 118.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 60c | 116.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 416 | 51.9%216 W · 200 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 92.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 68c | 91.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 47c | 86.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 84.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 79.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 697 | 58.4%407 W · 290 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 77.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…7895backed Yes | 54c | 70.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 30c | 61.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 60.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…bb09backed Yes | 39c | 59.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 29c | 59.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 41c | 57.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 69c | 44.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 179 | 55.9%100 W · 79 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 43c | 41.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 62c | 40.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 36.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 39c | 35.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 256 | 39.8%102 W · 154 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 34.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 66c | 32.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 62c | 31.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 36c | 31.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 69c | 31.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 30.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 54c | 28.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 20.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 275 | 65.5%180 W · 95 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…e6d4backed No | 66c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 75c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.