Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3aaa1897b8d385f381c0e6aca13ed4aa7679d462804d4d2a7990a51907389b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 33c | 400$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.31 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 217.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 64c | 198.91$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 153.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 150.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 142.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 66c | 119.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 66c | 99.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 29c | 83.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 50c | 78.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 38c | 77.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…6d99backed Yes | 67c | 72.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 43c | 69.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 416 | 51.9%216 W · 200 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 75c | 68.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 96 | 83.3%80 W · 16 L | +20.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 47c | 64.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 31c | 62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 53.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 48c | 52.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 45c | 52.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 71c | 49.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 247 | 68.8%170 W · 77 L | +25.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 29c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 36c | 46.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 45.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed No | 68c | 44.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 44c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 42.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 38c | 41.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 39.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 74c | 35.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 58.4%149 W · 106 L | +23.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 32.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 60c | 32.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 58c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 42c | 29.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 59c | 29.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 25.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 23.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 45c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 21.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 20.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 60c | 18.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 65c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 67c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…d7eabacked No | 68c | 15.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.