Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86bb873adcf401b6f7a5cf82058806db349e0091fcbcf5795489cbdad5e50f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Yes | 34c | 1,969$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.43 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb197…91c6backed Yes | 32c | 1,152$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 788.65$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.51 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 771.47$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.46 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 758.57$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.86 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 24c | 402.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.9 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 356.63$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.91 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 17c | 340.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.73 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Yes | 14c | 292.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…7bccbacked Yes | 73c | 236.91$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 40c | 235.11$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.69 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b7…b46fbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 75c | 179.36$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 13c | 168$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 28c | 138.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 40c | 114.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 106.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 14c | 92.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 54c | 89.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 29c | 86.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed No | 63c | 79.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 15c | 77.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Yes | 25c | 71.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 25c | 68.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…a6a0backed Yes | 74c | 57.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Yes | 28c | 52.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…d166backed No | 80c | 52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 67c | 51.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 39c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 73c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Yes | 79c | 42.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b16…a497backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14de…489cbacked Yes | 78c | 22.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc97f…9cd2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-02-06?No won
- Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-02-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.