Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86c7f8bb27fa23bffd42906e667d52cfa76bc8d800ddad16bd97e93d6b3606f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85c1…c1a4backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked No | 78c | 257.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 211.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…2bacbacked Yes | 13c | 185.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 24c | 179.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 24c | 131.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 23c | 128.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 17c | 119.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 18c | 97.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 96.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 26c | 84.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 24c | 80.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…e6d8backed Yes | 20c | 79.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 57.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 80c | 56.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 44.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 37.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 76c | 33.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…0227backed Yes | 50c | 32.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.