Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x756985833567c3c61ebb30ed6386447ed081b6a2b3c1c07666217566c8b10588
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85c1…c1a4backed No | 77c | 1,560$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 23c | 1,104$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.46 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 79c | 611.45$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.75 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 70c | 469.42$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.01 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 23c | 368.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 49c | 308.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 26c | 279.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 77c | 233.08$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 25c | 216.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 22c | 180.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 59c | 169.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 23c | 153.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 135.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked No | 77c | 129.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 123.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 24c | 107.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 105.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…4841backed Yes | 52c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 102.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 73c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 31c | 100.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e5…fa72backed Yes | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 27c | 93.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 29c | 93.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 24c | 91.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 53c | 88.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 44c | 84.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 25c | 81.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 77.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 26c | 71.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 26c | 65.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 18c | 63.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…ae19backed Yes | 22c | 60.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 77c | 58.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 55.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 54.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed Yes | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8e…20fabacked Yes | 27c | 53.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…d4b0backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…9d57backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…7695backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…6391backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed No | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 73c | 46.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 45.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 76c | 43.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 39.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…e78cbacked Yes | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 32.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 26.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…e54abacked Yes | 53c | 25.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 74c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 47c | 21.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 73c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 74c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…a1a5backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed No | 73c | 17.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 15.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.